Israel-Iran War Scenario & Possibilities

Any Israeli attempt to destroy Iran's nuclear programme poses huge technical challenges for Israeli military planners. BBC Defence Correspondent Jonathan Marcus looks at some of the options open to Israel and asks whether it has the capacity to carry out such a mission.

Possible attack routes

• Route 1: Northern route where Israeli jets would fly north and then east along the Turkish border with Syria and Iraq
• Route 2: Central, more likely route, would take Israeli warplanes over Jordan and Iraq
• Route 3: Southern route would take Israeli jets over Saudi air space. Possible route for return leg of their journey

Getting there

Aircraft	Details	Task
Fighter bombers F-15I	F-15I Ra'am or Thunder Israel's variant of the US-made F-15 Twin-seat attack aircraft Armed with cannon for self-defence and air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles Could be used to carry the guided bunker busters F-16I Sufa or Storm Multi-role fighter Armaments include air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles, targeting and navigation systems	The Israeli Air Force has 125 advanced F15I and F16I warplanes that could be used in any long-range strike against Iran Experts say the F-15I would be the only option for carrying the GBU-28 laser-guided missiles, with "bunker busting" warheads - but each plane could only carry one bomb Air support would also be available from the modern F-16I fighters, which cannot carry the GBU-28s
Mid-flight refuelling	Boeing 707 Re'em or Oryx Israel is believed to have between eight and 10 large tanker aircraft based on the Boeing 707	Refuelling would be critical to the Israeli operation Many of the potential targets in Iran are between 1,500km (930 miles) and 1,800km (1,120 miles) from Israeli bases, putting them out of range of the fighters, whose combat radius is about 1200-1600km The strike aircraft would need to refuel to make it there and back - possibly after take-off over the Mediterranean
Unmanned drones	Eitan or Heron Israel's unmanned aerial vehicles, more commonly known as drones High altitude, long endurance aircraft used for surveillance and scouting Operations include gathering intelligence information, marking specific points for other aircraft to attack	The unmanned drones could be used to assess the damage done by strikes or help in other ways during the operation Experts say they could have a cyber role to trick air defences by targeting radars or generating a "false picture of what is happening" for the enemy on the ground
Israel's 'Bunker Buster'
	GBU-28 US-supplied 5,000lb laser-guided weapon with penetrating warhead Carried by strike aircraft Used to target deeply-buried facilities Tests have shown it can penetrate 6m (20ft) of concrete	A number of the potential targets are underground. The GBU-28, or "Bunker Buster", has been used in Serbia, in Afghanistan and Iraq

 

How it works: The bombs are carried by Israeli F-15I aircraft - but only one per aircraft, which would mean a large attack force for multiple attempts on numerous targets Bomb is released almost vertically over the target, and guided by lasers The bombs can penetrate up to 6m of concrete or about 30.5m (100ft) of earth before detonating the 4,400lb warhead

 

Potential targets

Location	Type of facility	Background
Natanz	Uranium enrichment plant In February 2012, Iran unveiled the "new generation" of faster, more efficient centrifuges at the facility and that it had used domestically-made nuclear fuel in a reactor for the first time	This is the facility at the heart of Iran's dispute with the United Nations Security Council The council is concerned because the technology used for producing fuel for nuclear power can be used to enrich the uranium to a much higher level to produce a nuclear explosion The facility is underground, making bunker-busting munitions essential
Fordo, near Qom	Uranium enrichment plant Iran says the Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) is for use as a fuel in research reactors. Uranium - with a concentration of 20% or more - is needed to build nuclear weapons	In January 2012, Iran said it had begun uranium enrichment at the heavily fortified site of Fordo near the holy city of Qom Like Natanz, it may pose a problem for Israeli bombers as the facility is buried deeply into the side of a mountain
Arak	Heavy water plant Heavy water is used to moderate the nuclear fission chain reaction either in a certain type of reactor or to produce plutonium for use in a nuclear bomb	Satellite images released in 2011 showed how Iran's heavy water reactor and heavy water plant at Arak had changed in a year The UN nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, said that "construction of the facility was ongoing and the coolant heat exchangers had been installed"
Isfahan	Uranium conversion plant Plant at a nuclear research facility to convert uranium ore concentrate, or yellowcake, into: Hexafluoride gas - used in gas centrifuges Uranium oxide - used to fuel reactors, albeit not the type Iran is constructing Metal - often used in the cores of nuclear bombs	The IAEA is concerned about the metal's use, as Iran's reactors do not require it as fuel
Parchin	Military site One of Iran's leading munitions centres - for the research, development and production of ammunition, rockets and high explosives	IAEA inspectors were prevented from visiting the site in February 2012 as they sought to clarify the "possible military dimensions" of Iran's nuclear programme Iran is thought to have built a large containment chamber to conduct tests involving high explosives in conjunction with nuclear material or nuclear material surrogates

Iran's defences

Type	System	Efficacy
Surface to air missiles	Hawk system US-built system dates back to the days of the Shah	Said to be located with other systems around Tehran and key bases and facilities
For high altitude targets	SA-5 or S-200 Russian-built systems are older but capable of posing a threat to any strike force They are used to target high-altitude targets	Reports vary on the number of batteries Iran has available Some say it has enough for six sites
For low level targets	Tor-M1/SA-15 Gauntlet Mobile surface-to-air defence system used against low-level targets such as aircraft and guided missiles Each unit consists of a vehicle armed with eight missiles and a radar that can track 48 targets and engage two simultaneously	The Russian systems and missiles were delivered between 2006 and 2007 Reports suggest these systems were specifically acquired for defence around Iran's nuclear facilities, according to Global Security analysts
Long-range systems	S-300 Highly capable, long-range system that can be used against targets at low, medium or high altitudes	In 2008, Russia refused to supply Iran with the long-range system But Iran claims it bought some of the systems from elsewhere - including Croatia
Iranian Air Force Iranian Mig-29s	Russian-built Mig-29s US-built F-14 Tomcats	Iran has a number of US-built F-14 Tomcat fighters and a significant number of relatively more modern Russian-supplied MiG-29s Iran's air force is not seen as a match for the Israelis, but the Israeli pilots will be wary of extending their mission time with air-to-air combat given their limited fuel supplies

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