Israel says Iranian nuclear program is a threat to its national security and has repeatedly declared its readiness to strike by Air Force against Iranian nuclear facilities even in United States. According to the report of the American Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), this will result in brutal war in human history, in which will die almost 20 million Iranians, and Israel would lose about 800 thousand people killed.
The main reasons
One of the main reasons are religious differences. Although relatively recently (by historical standards), before the Islamic revolution in Iran, in 1978 the Jewish community in Iran numbered approximately 80 thousand people. Seizure of power by the Shiite clergy led to a rupture of relations with Israel, Israel has become an enemy. Jews have emigrated, the number of their community had fallen to 30 thousand people.
While the religious leaders of Iran said that they are enemies of Zionism and its tools - Israel, but, not the Jews and Judaism. The country still has 11 synagogues, Jewish schools, 3 capital of the Jewish community in Parliament, one representative, the Jews in their homes were allowed to observe their traditions.
An active anti-Israeli policy of Iran, support for paramilitary parties (finance, weapons) - Israel's enemies, Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon. Tehran openly identifies Zionism and Nazism, said the cooperation of functionaries of the Third Reich and the Zionist circles, speaks of the falsity of the doctrine of "Holocaust" (the numbers of Jews exterminated are greatly overstated; as the Nazis destroyed only selectively assimilated Eastern European Jews). In 2005, Ahmadinejad said, speaking at a youth conference in the capital of Iran: "Israel must be wiped off the map. this is said to us by our master Imam Khomeini. Formation of the State of Israel was an act of international aggression against Islam. "
Nuclear program of Iran, which the Tel Aviv considered a direct threat to Israel's national security. Israeli political and military elite believed that only the presence of nuclear weapons in Israel, gives him a guarantee of security in a completely aggressive external environment.
Do not forget such factors as the plan of the Zionists - "Greater Israel" is a great power with the boundaries of the times of the kingdom of Solomon: From the Mediterranean to Mesopotamia and from the Red Sea to the Euphrates. Under this plan, state in Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Iraq will be eliminated, and their territory will be included in "Greater Israel". Apparently, most of the Arab population will be expelled and exterminated, as during the occupation of the territory of modern Palestine and Israel.With the development of Arab unrest, there occurs possible scenario of the implementation of this plan. And Iran is the chief opponent of such a scenario, the Arab countries have little combat-ready armies (some also can be subdivided by internal strife). The main enemy, which could challenge Israel is Iran.
Doctrine: "first blow"
As is well known, the Israeli military and intelligence agencies are not waiting for strike and try to forestall the enemy to strike first. That is quite faithful to the strategy: who struck first, has many advantages. Tel Aviv destroyed nuclear facility in Iraq, according to some sources in Syria.
There is a desire to strike first at Iran, without giving it the opportunity to complete the nuclear program, given the relatively advanced missile (its Shahab-3, with a range of about 1300 km, are already capable of hitting Israel) it would be dangerous. In addition, Iran every year build the capacity of the defensive potential, i.e., the theoretical loss of the aggressor in a potential conflict, are constantly increasing. Israel is advantageous to strike first. Tehran may well possess other weapons of mass destruction, chemical and biological.
Scenario of war
Israel may be using the Air Force strike for a sudden blow and destroy important strategic assets of Iran (Iran's air defenses are still in a fairly undeveloped state). In the worst-case; impact can be applied via nuclear warheads. Israel will bring down the overwhelming majority of the rockets of Iran, its retaliatory attack damage will be minimum. It is easy to keep track of what Israel is actively developing in the area of air defense systems, for medium and long range missiles.
The forecast of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the aid of Iran may come - Syria, with which Iran has friendly relations. Syrian armed forces are able to strike at Israel with missiles with chemical and biological warheads. Retaliation will be nuclear, & Israel will destroy up to 18 million Syrians.
In fact, this will be a victory, but at the cost of millions of Iranians and Arabs. But for the Zionists, they are not people, but the “animal-subhuman. "
The fact that Tehran first start a war, is very doubtful whether this would lead to war with the U.S. and some NATO countries, Iran is not ready.
But Tehran understands that the threat is large and quickly prepares itself: construct underground bunkers, new kinds of weapons, upgraded old ones. Much attention is paid to improving air defense systems, the development of anti-ship missiles, ballistic missiles.
Tehran has created a unique space program, in almost complete blockade. Iranian satellite launched into low orbit Iranian satellite, that is, in principle, solve the problem with the creation of intercontinental ballistic missiles. Created a process chain for the production of satellites and launch vehicles. It should be noted that Russia has helped Iran - the first satellite was built by order of the Russian Federation and launched from Plesetsk (28 October 2005). The second satellite of Iran was developing jointly with China and Thailand, it launched by a Chinese carrier rocket Long March 2C in September 2008, at the same time in Iran have created their own rockets and satellites. February 4, 2008 Iran successfully launched to an altitude of 250 km and then dropped in a parachute unit with devices using the 2-stage rocket Kavoshgar-1 "(Explorer-1) with the LRE. This missile have created on the basis of military missiles with range of 2000 miles and consists of the first 2 of the 3 stages of an orbital launch vehicle "Safir" ("Shahab-4"), which is able to place in orbit a payload of 150 kg .
Iranian authorities have been able to create two spaceport - Imamshahr and Qom. Tehran has the ability to produce missiles and satellites within its territory and of course to deliver nuclear weapons on the territory of an enemy like Israel.
German newspaper "Bild" has closed the data reports the German intelligence service BND (Federal Intelligence Service of Germany), which said that North Korea has sold Iran components of delivery, which allows nuclear strike against Israel.
In this case, the loss of Israel's rise sharply, but it still wins, according to CSIS. The reason is simple, Tehran has not yet managed to create an adequate supply of nuclear warheads and carriers, besides, their charge is no more than 100 kilotons. But Israel has some 220 nuclear warheads and 60-ton carriers. Besides all these charges are to be delivered.
Iran from developing nuclear weapons - risk factor for the world?
More likely not, despite the rather intemperate rhetoric, the Iranian elite is able to negotiate. This is a typical Eastern country, an agreement is possible. For Iran, nuclear weapons, are deterrent for US and Israel, the guarantee of security.