Course of operations in Libya has demonstrated the importance of reliable modern air defense systems for the country's defense, which will further increase demand on the world market for air-defense system of small, medium and long range, which before these events was quite high.
On the basis of pricing options and financial opportunities "interested" countries to the events in Libya, will react with short & medium ranged SAMs. Market for long-range guided missile system also responds to these events, however, due to its greater inertia and cost parameters, a substantial increase in demand in this segment can be expected only in the medium term (2015 onwards).
In connection with the "force majeure" events in the Middle East, TsAMTO (Center for the Analysis of the World Arms Trade) adjusted its forecast a year ago, which was compiled for the period 2010-2013. Earlier TSAMTO predicted total sales of air defense systems (SAM and MANPADS) for the period 2010-2013. a volume of 22 billion (8% of the total projected world arms exports in this period).
To date in connection with a number of occurred "force majeure" events, TsAMTO increased forecast by value of sales of air defense for the period 2010-2013. 900 million dollars (up to 22.9 billion dollars). The bulk of growth in the market will be ensured through greater than anticipated earlier, sales of air defense missile systems of small and medium-range missiles in 2012 and 2013.
According to calculation, dated March 31, 2010, for certain categories of sales in 2010-2013. projected as follows: SAM - 21.58 billion dollars, anti-aircraft artillery units - 330 million dollars, MANPADS - 70 million dollars.
Distribution by years of projected sales of air defense was as follows: 4.522 billion USD in 2010 (6.1% of world arms exports), 4.18 billion dollars in 2011 (6.2%), 6.478 billion dollars in 2012 (9.3%) and 6.803 billion dollars in 2013 (10.6%).
As seen from the above figures, TsAMTO a year ago predicted a fairly substantial increase in demand in the near term on the world market in a segment of air defense systems. In particular, in 2013 predicted the biggest share sales of air defense of the total world arms exports (10.6%).
The military operation of coalition forces in Libya, an embargo on arms supplies to this country, as well as an earlier decision to impose an embargo on arms supplies to Iran (including S-300) certainly made their adjustments to the outlook for supply air defense systems. The situation in Libya (military operation plus an arms embargo) and Iran (arms embargo) could not be predicted in advance and represent the "force majeure" circumstances.
Nevertheless, despite the cancellation of the contract to supply Russian air defense systems to Iran S-300, pursuant to UN Security Council resolution, as well as an embargo on arms supplies to Libya (including unscheduled deliveries of S-300PMU-2), TsAMTO does not change its total cost forecast for the world's supply of long-range air defense systems in the near period, because as marketable goods of the Russian system, designed previously for the Iran and Libya, will find other buyers in the global market.Delivery times, of course, will be somewhat shifted (perhaps a year or more.) That is part of the deliveries, scheduled for 2010-2011. Will be rescheduled for 2012-2013.
Previously, sales of long-range guided missile system was predicted in the volume of 2.577 billion dollars in 2010, 2.255 billion dollars in 2011, 4.145 billion dollars in 2012 and 4.330 billion in 2013. With this in mind, the volume of deliveries in 2012 and 2013.will be higher than the projected amount previously due to the "undersupply" in 2010-2011., but the overall balance for 2010-2013.by means of long-range air defense will remain at the same level - about 13.3 billion dollars.
According to the forecast TsAMTO in two other segments of air defense systems in the near term there will be more significant changes. In particular, SAM is the market of small and medium-range missiles, as well as MANPADS.
MANPADS market is expected to decline. This is due to the fact that, as the events in Libya, in the case of large-scale disturbances in one country or another, the already available MANPADS stockpiles may become easy prey to illegal armed formations and terrorist groups, presenting a direct threat to military and civil aircraft and helicopters away from the conflict zone.
United States had before pursued an active policy to curb global sales of MANPADS & destruction of existing stockpiles. Now, most likely, the U.S. position on this issue will become even tougher. It is not excluded that the issue of banning sales of MANPADS to be discussed by international organizations, including the UN. Given the fact that as of first quarter 2010 portfolio of worldwide orders for MANPADS in the period 2010-2013. has not yet been formed, in this segment in response to recent events in Libya, one can hardly expect any growth. Most exporters are likely to refuse the supply of MANPADS to "problem countries" (and not just in the Middle East and North Africa).
On the contrary, in the segment of SAM (small and medium-range) TSAMTO expects significantly higher sales than it previously projected for 2012 and 2013. In particular, previously TsAMTO predict the volume of world supplies SAM (small and medium-range missiles) in 2010 in the amount of 1.833 billion dollars in 2011 - 1.915 billion dollars in 2012 - 2.189 billion dollars in 2013 - 2.339 billion dollars (8.276 billion total dollars).
Given the developments in Libya and in the wider Middle East region, figures for 2011 may be somewhat "ripen”. At the same time, in 2012 and 2013. sales growth relative to the previously made predictions can be from 20 to 25%. That is, the total market growth for small and medium-range missiles relative to the previous forecast could reach about 900 million dollars (as a whole is around 9.17 billion dollars).
In the period 2002-2009 years. volume of the world's supply of air defense systems (SAM and MANPADS) TsAMTO estimates at 17.832 billion dollars, representing 6.1% of sales of all categories of weapons.
In general, for the period 2002-2009 years. share of sales of air defense in the structure of the world's supply AME (Middle East business and financial directory) ranged from a minimum value of 1,8% in 2003 to a maximum of 8,7% in 2008. In 2009, the share of defense in the overall structure of world arms exports by kinds of military hardware was 7.4% (3.737 billion dollars). In the period 2007-2009. share of defense in the global arms market has stabilized at very high levels ranging from 7 to 9%.
The actual value sales of air defense for the period 2002-2009 years. minimum value was recorded in 2003 - 485 million dollars, the maximum - in 2008 (4.279 billion dollars).
Sales leader in the segment of air defense systems are anti-aircraft missile systems (small, medium and long range) - U.S. $ 15.028 billion in the period 2002-2009. That is 84,27% of the total sales of air defense systems. The largest volume of SAM shipments for the period under review in terms of value fell in 2008 - 3.735 billion dollars, the minimum - in 2003 - 276 million dollars. In 2009, sales totaled 3.26 billion dollars.